Differential Nanotechnology Development

Summary

Nanoscience and nanotechnology are concerned with extremely small structures, between the atomic scale and the micro scale (i.e. roughly between 10^(-10) and 10^(-5)m), and their properties. Many nanotechnology projects will even manipulate individual atoms or molecules. Nanotechnology has the potential to be an extremely powerful technology that could revolutionise manufacturing, medicine, electronics, and materials science. If nanotechnology where to rapidly develop (e.g. AI has already discovered millions of new materials, equivalent to almost 800 years’ worth of knowledge), this would bring both potential benefits and also large risks.

Uncertainty

The content of this article is largely based on research by Ben Snodin and the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing. Due to the exploratory nature of this article, we feel less confident in the recommendations in this article than in our other articles.

With the development of more and more powerful AI, it has been argued that transformative AI that can automate the human activities needed to speed up scientific and technological advancement will be developed this century. As a result, it may be better to focus on making sure that this transformative AI is aligned with human values to ensure that the technology that is developed by the transformative AI benefits humanity.

Published: 30 Jan 2024 by Jessica Wen

Cause area overview

What is nanotechnology?

Scientists realised that material properties are dramatically different at microscopically small scales (between 1 to 100 nanometers) compared to at the macroscopic level, and discovered how to manipulate these properties to produce nanotechnology. Now, nanotechnology can be found in diverse applications ranging from sunscreen to tennis rackets to bio-sensors. Nanotechnology enables the engineering and creation of structures and devices with unprecedented precision, which could transform all kinds of fields from communications and computing to manufacturing and medicine.

Current capabilities and risks

Current nanotechnologies are focused on manipulating and exploiting the unique properties of materials in the <100 nanometer size range. For example, carbon atoms can be configured into nanotubes made of tubular lattices of carbon that can absorb almost all wavelengths of visible light; football-shaped polyhedra made of 60 atoms of carbon called Buckyballs that can store hydrogen; sheets of carbon in a hexagonal pattern that can act as insulators in one direction and conductors in another; etc. These technologies are already being commercialised and applied in industries ranging from sensors, water purification, super strong fabrics and materials, antipollution devices, new pharmaceuticals, electronic memory and semiconductor devices, renewable energy capture and storage systems, security and military components, and many others. More nanomaterials and new applications will continue to emerge in the future.

As with other new technologies, nanotechnology comes with its own set of risks.

We know very little about nanotechnology because we haven’t been using it for very long. This could pose risks; for example, the use of nanoparticles could have toxicological and environmental impacts. More research is needed in this area to enable safe use of nanoparticles and inform standardised regulatory frameworks.

Future capabilities and risks

Grey goo?

Eric Drexler, also known as the father of nanotechnology, brought to the public consciousness the idea of “grey goo” in his 1986 book Engines of Creation. The scenario goes like this: in the distant future, an oil tanker meets a calamity and spills billions of gallons of its cargo into the natural environment. To address this environmental disaster, a platoon of nanorobots is deployed. They are designed to self-replicate, consume hydrocarbons and neutralise the spill. However, these robots not only target the oil, but also everything organic around them. The relentless replication and consumption swiftly lead to the annihilation of all life on Earth.

Drexler published a paper in 2004 saying that “runaway replicators, while theoretically possible according to the laws of physics, cannot be built with today’s nanotechnology toolset.'“ He adds that “self-replicating machines aren’t necessary for molecular nanotechnology, and aren’t part of current development plans”. In this paper, the authors warn that scaremongering over unlikely scenarios like grey goo is taking attention away from serious safety concerns, such as deliberate abuse of the technology.

Deliberate misuse

Current investigations into nanotechnology risks are focused on “passive” nanoscale particles (e.g. how they interact with biological systems). However, the most exciting research into nanotechnology is into productive nanosystems, which focus on producing programmable, molecular-scale systems, or even atomically precise manufacturing. These are qualitatively different to nanomaterials and therefore come with a different set of risks, as is usual for new technologies, including a risk of abuse that must be taken seriously. Although these productive nanosystems are not yet commercialised or wide-ranging, it is important to anticipate the risks and develop a strategy to develop nanotechnology safely.

The Institute for Molecular Manufacturing raises the possibility that “a determined and sophisticated group of terrorists or “non-state entities” could potentially, with considerable difficulty, specifically engineer systems to become autonomous replicators able to proliferate in the natural environment, either as a nuisance, a specifically targeted weapon, or in the worst case, a weapon of mass destruction.” The IMM suggests that “in addition to the need for professional ethics and multiple layers of embedded industrial controls, there will also be a need for thoughtful regulation, monitoring, and potentially the development of “immune responses” to external threats.” Some examples of safety controls that can be engineered into nanotechnology designs are listed in Freitas and Merkle, p152 of Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, 2004.

AI safety

With the rapid development of AI tools in nanotechnology research, nanotechnology development is likely to speed up (e.g. DeepMind’s GNoME discovering 800 years’ worth of knowledge in new materials, genetic algorithms being used to optimise the design of optical metasurfaces, etc.) Perhaps more concerningly, the combination of AI and present and future nanocomputing (computation done with nanodevices) could cause AI to be developed more quickly.

Various emerging nanotechnologies are being explored to develop nanocomputing devices, with some drawing inspiration from biology, such as DNA computing. These technologies, incorporating diverse physical foundations like photons, plasmons, molecular states, etc., along with reconfigurable architectures, innovative memory and computational principles, could introduce new data representations. This, in turn, enables the implementation of advanced machine learning paradigms capable of addressing more complex problems and potentially producing more powerful AI.

Further research is essential to assess the impact of specific nanotechnologies on AI safety and to compare them to other AI safety strategies. There appears to be some synergy between nanotechnology strategy and other areas like AI governance and biosecurity, so there is likely to be a lot of transferable methodologies and findings between these areas. An example of a successful precedent from the biotechnology community that could be applied to nanotechnology is the NIH Guidelines on Recombinant DNA technology, which were so well accepted that the privately funded research community has continued to submit research protocols for juried review despite it being optional for them to do so. This shows that advanced preparations and self-regulation are possible and can be effective.

Resource Portal Page: AI Safety

How can engineers contribute to differential nanotechnology development?

What are the bottlenecks?

  • Nanotechnology strategy research

    • A concrete project suggested by Ben Snodin at Rethink Priorities would be to “consider what you would do if you knew that advanced nanotechnology was coming in 2032” and to seek consensus from people who are well-informed about nanotechnology strategy and interested in ensuring safe nanotechnology development. The result could point to a particular high-value intervention, and perhaps help generate a plan in the event that nanotechnology development were to accelerate.

    • Another idea is to create forecasts of the timeline of key developments and effects of advanced nanotechnology. This would help “[direct] work within nanotechnology strategy towards the most high-value sub-areas, perhaps increasing the chance that high-value interventions are found and successfully executed” (Snodin, 2022).

    • A third potentially helpful project could be to “identify and monitor potential warning signs of surprising progress towards advanced nanotechnology, for example by identifying the relevant areas of current research, the most important research groups, and key bottlenecks and potential breakthroughs” (Snodin, 2022).

    • This kind of work is most likely suited to engineers with a chemistry/physics/bio/materials/electronics background, particularly people with PhDs in those areas.

  • Stewarding intellectual property

    • Private actors with control over key intellectual property in nanotechnology could have a significant influence on the use of that technology (unlike in AI algorithm development). As a result, it is important to ensure that these private actors have incentives that align with ensuring safe nanotechnology development.

    • Enforcing nanotechnology patents could be a good way of restricting access to powerful nanotechnologies. However, the only way to determine if a nanotechnology patent has been infringed is to use sophisticated and expensive microscopy techniques and equipment, making the enforcement of nanotechnology patents prohibitively expensive and practically impossible. As a result, these factors make disclosing patents undesirable, which could make tracking developments in nanotechnology difficult.

    • It is probably a little harder to contribute to this area. If you have a chemistry/physics/materials background, you could potentially work on developing more low-cost microscopy or other detection methods to help verify if a nanotechnology patent has been infringed. Having an understanding of IP law may also be helpful.

Career moves

  • It is possible to bridge from engineering disciplines (such as electrical, materials, chemical engineering, bioengineering, etc.) to nanotechnology by working on technologies that require manufacturing or research at small scales, such as microelectronics, drug delivery mechanisms, catalysis, etc. This can be done through academic research, a large company like TSMC, or a startup. Working in this area could enable progress towards advanced nanotechnology to be monitored, and could give you a good technical knowledge base to make forecasts and work on strategy research.

  • Another way to work on nanotechnology strategy research is by becoming an expert in emerging technology governance through a government fellowship or working at a think tank. Supporting policy research in emerging technologies is a transferable skill across other technologies such as biotechnology and AI. However, this research could have a limited impact before a consensus about the feasibility and timeline of advanced nanotechnology is established.

Risks, pitfalls, and things to keep in mind

  • The development of nanotechnology offers potential benefits, such as the capacity to prevent and repair damage from diseases unresponsive to current medical treatments and the ability to engage in efficient, low-waste manufacturing at scale. However, these advantages must be carefully balanced against the associated risks of advanced nanotechnology. Advanced nanotechnology could produce both highly positive and extremely adverse effects. Considering that accelerating progress in nanotechnology would be very difficult to reverse, there is a compelling argument for adopting a cautious approach and gathering more information about its implications before accelerating the development of nanotechnology.

  • Given the hazards tied to the rapid advancement of nanotechnology, discussing it in a manner that sparks interest in its development may pose significant risks. The relative lack of attention on this technology makes it susceptible to notable increases in visibility, and highlighting its military applications, in particular, could steer its development toward perilous avenues. Like other unexplored domains, there is a risk that hasty or poorly considered efforts in nanotechnology strategy research might have long-term repercussions, either by fostering inadequate conceptual frameworks or by hindering effective communication between EA-aligned individuals and policymakers, potentially discouraging future engagement.

  • Navigating the uncharted territory of nanotechnology requires a thoughtful and cautious approach to ensure that early initiatives in research and communication set a positive foundation for future progress rather than inadvertently impeding it.

Learn more

Additional resources

Relevant organisations

Very few people are actively working on nanotechnology strategy development. Here are some organisations that might have relevant work, or could be well-placed to work on nanotechnology strategy.