Differential Technology Development

Summary

New technologies have historically been a double-edged sword. For example, harnessing the power of the atom allowed us to produce zero-emission electricity, but the atomic bomb wreaked havoc in Japan and could still lead to massive death and destruction (see our page on Nuclear War). Differential Technology Development (DTD) is a strategy that aims to slow down the development of potentially harmful technologies and speed up the development of beneficial technologies.

Technologies that we are particularly interested in differentially developing are AI, biotechnology, and neurotechnology. These are not the only fields that could benefit from DTD, but we hope that these illustrative examples can help you consider how DTD could apply to your engineering field. Please reach out if you would like to contribute to this page.

Uncertainty

The content of this article is largely based on research by Nick Bostrom, Toby Ord, and Rethink Priorities. Due to the exploratory nature of this article, we feel less confident in the recommendations in this article than in our other articles.

Published: 30 Jan 2024 by Jessica Wen

Nanotechnology is a field of research and development concerned with extremely small structures. It has the potential to be an extremely powerful technology, that could revolutionise manufacturing and material science. If nanotechnology were to rapidly develop, this would bring both potential benefits and also large risks.

Differential Neurotechnology Development

Neurotechnological advances have been incredible over the past few years. Combined with AI, neurotechnology could become a force for good, but also comes with its associated risks.

AI Safety and Governance

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies have the potential to significantly improve society. However, AI also comes with inherent risks, some of which are potentially catastrophic. Engineers may be well placed to contribute effectively to reducing the risk from advanced AI.

Biorisk and Biosecurity

Pandemics pose a serious threat to humanity’s short- and long-term well-being, and warrant increased investment and effort in global biosecurity. Engineers may be able to contribute effectively to global biosecurity by developing the physical technologies and systems needed to prevent, detect, and respond to GCBRs.

Cause area overview

Differential technological development (DTD) is a strategy that aims to:

“Retard the development of dangerous and harmful technologies, especially ones that raise the level of existential risk; and accelerate the development of beneficial technologies, especially those that reduce the existential risks posed by nature or by other technologies.” (Bostrom, The Vulnerable World Hypothesis, 2019)

Practically speaking, DTD involves trying to prevent dangerous capabilities from being developed; if that fails, “it could still make sense to attempt to influence the direction of technological research. What matters is not only whether a technology is developed, but also when it is developed, by whom, and in what context. These circumstances of birth of a new technology, which shape its impact, can be affected by turning funding spigots on or off (and by wielding other policy instruments). These reflections suggest a principle that would have us attend to the relative speed with which different technologies are developed.” (Bostrom, Superintelligence, pp. 228, Chapter 14, 2014)

Read more about DTD in this EA Forum post.